Singapore’s export scene just hit a small speed bump, and honestly, it feels a bit like when your favourite bubble tea shop suddenly runs out of pearls — not a crisis, but definitely a mood spoiler.
After enjoying four straight quarters of growth, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) slipped by 3.3% in Q3 2025. Yep, the streak snapped. And the culprit? Not the usual suspects, but the non-electronics sector, which makes up a chunky 74% of all NODX.
So… What Went Down?
Although electronics tried to hold the fort, non-electronics dragged the overall number down. Let’s break it down in a way even your most blur sotong friend would get:
- Non-electronics exports fell 6.5% year-on-year, reversing the previous quarter’s 5.9% growth.
- Meanwhile, electronics rose 7.1%, although still slower than the previous quarter’s fiery 10.5%.
And in case you’re wondering what exactly was causing the dip — food preparations, petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals were the biggest culprits. Quite an odd trio, but okay lah.
Electronics Still Got Some Zing
Even though non-electronics was dragging its feet, electronics still had some sparks:
- PCs skyrocketed by 69.5% — probably thanks to all the AI tools everybody is panic-buying.
- Integrated circuits went up 9.2%.
- Disk drives also climbed 16.5% — apparently still alive and kicking.
But exports to big markets like the US, Indonesia, and China? They all went soft this round. Not exactly the kind of news we want before Christmas shopping starts.
Forecast Adjustments — The “Lower Your Expectations” Edition
Enterprise Singapore also decided to be a bit more realistic. It trimmed the 2025 export growth forecast to about 2.5%, down from the earlier 1% to 3% range.
Meanwhile, the year so far hasn’t been terrible — the first three quarters still show 2.2% growth, which is like getting a B-minus when you aimed for an A. Still passable lah.
Looking ahead:
- NODX is expected to grow 0–2% in 2026.
- But globally? Things might get a bit meh. The WTO expects global merchandise trade to grow only 0.5% in 2026, much slower compared to 2.4% previously.
And the reason? Tariffs. Frontloading. Basically, all the things that make international trade feel like a toxic relationship.
Enterprise Singapore also warned of downside risks like worsening tariff fights and new sector-specific tariffs that could mess with demand and create even more uncertainty.
The Silver Linings
Okay, not everything is doom and gloom. There are a few bright spots for 4Q 2025:
- AI-related demand still booming — thank you, ChatGPT cousins.
- High gold prices — great for exporters, terrible for people hoping to buy jewellery for Christmas.
- These might give NODX a bit of a boost… though last year’s high base numbers may also make it harder to show growth.
My Two Cents (Take With Kaya Toast)
Honestly, the dip isn’t shocking. The world economy is like one long MRT delay lately — slow, unpredictable, and full of “pls bear with us” announcements. Singapore isn’t immune to these hiccups, and a 3.3% slip isn’t the end of the world.
However, I do think we need to pay more attention to non-electronics. Electronics is sexy and booming (thanks to the AI craze), but the broader economy needs diversity. Relying too heavily on electronics is like eating mala every day — shiok at first, but eventually, you’ll suffer.
On the bright side, Singapore has always been the overachiever type — when things dip, they tend to bounce back faster than most countries. But for now, maybe just accept that 2025 and 2026 won’t be fireworks-level exciting.
Still steady lah. Just not very thrilling.
