Let’s get straight to it. Everyone keeps asking the same question, year after year, like it’s a ritual: “So… is the US housing market finally going to crash?”
Short answer? Nope.
Long answer? Sit down, kopi in hand, because this mess needs unpacking.
A Quick Reality Check Before 2026
First things first, let’s rewind a bit. Look at the five-year chart of US home prices. Be honest with yourself. Does that line scream “crash incoming”? Or does it look more like a stubborn cat that refuses to come down from the cupboard?
Exactly.
By the end of November 2025, national home prices were up about 0.7% compared to November 2024. That’s not fireworks, but it’s definitely not a collapse either. If prices are still going up, even slowly, calling it a “crash” feels… dramatic. Netflix-level dramatic.
Back in 2024, the prediction was simple: no housing crash in 2025. And guess what? That call aged pretty well. Meanwhile, the “this-is-it-the-sky-is-falling” crowd has been shouting crash for four straight years now. At some point, it stops being a prediction and starts sounding like background noise.
But Real Estate Is Local (Yes, This Part Matters)
Now, before anyone flips a table, let’s be fair. Housing isn’t one big blob. It’s local.
Across the top 300 metro areas in the US, some places are hurting. Prices are clearly sliding in parts of the South, Florida, and sections of the West. Those deep red zones? Yeah, they’re not having a great time.
However, flip the map and you’ll see something else. Most metro areas are still seeing price growth, especially in the Midwest and along the East Coast.
Here’s the big picture:
- 98 metro areas saw prices decline
- 202 metro areas saw prices rise
- Nationally, prices are still up 0.7%
So yes, pain exists. But no, this is not a nationwide free fall.
Are Homes Still Crazy Expensive? Obviously.
Let’s not pretend otherwise. Homes are still expensive. Very expensive. For many Americans, they’re straight-up unaffordable.
And honestly, it makes total sense why people want a crash. A crash feels like a reset button. A second chance. A “maybe I can finally buy something without selling a kidney” moment.
Unfortunately, hope and reality are not dating each other right now.
What Actually Worries Me About 2026
Here’s where things get spicy.
The Federal Reserve has already started cutting interest rates. That part is public knowledge. But there’s more coming. With a new Fed chair stepping in around May, there’s a strong chance rates get cut even more aggressively.
Sounds good, right? Lower mortgage rates, happier buyers?
Not so fast.
Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing. Cheaper borrowing means more demand. More demand, with limited supply, means… you guessed it… higher home prices.
That’s inflation knocking politely, then barging in.
And that’s not all.
Money Printing Is Back (Again)
On December 12, the Fed quietly restarted money printing. About $40 billion a month. That’s not pocket change. That’s inflation fuel.
When more money floods the system, prices don’t stay still. Food goes up. Utilities go up. Housing goes up. Life, in general, gets more expensive.
This wouldn’t be such a big issue if wages were rising properly. But they aren’t.
Wages vs Inflation: The Real Villain
Official numbers say wages are growing at about 2.7% a year. Sounds okay… until you look around and realise nothing feels 2.7% more expensive. Groceries alone feel like they’re running their own marathon.
Real inflation? Closer to 6%, 8%, maybe even 10%, depending on how fast money is being printed.
Over the last 25 years, the US money supply has exploded. More dollars. Same houses. Same food. Same power bills. That’s why asset prices keep climbing long term. Stocks. Homes. Everything.
Back in 2000, the median home price was about $119,000. Movie popcorn was $1. Vending machines accepted coins. Now you need a credit card just to buy water.
Progress, I guess.
So… Why Would Prices Crash in 2026?
Let’s connect the dots.
- Interest rates are being cut
- Money printing is back
- Money supply is already at record highs
- Demand is ready to jump the moment rates fall
Given all that, why would home prices suddenly collapse?
They wouldn’t. And they probably won’t.
In fact, the National Association of Realtors is predicting home prices could rise about 4% in 2026. They’re calling it a market of the “haves and have-nots”.
Translation?
If you already own a home, congrats.
If you’re trying to buy your first one… good luck, bro.
First-Time Buyers Are Getting Pushed Out
Here’s a stat that should make everyone uncomfortable.
First-time buyers now make up just 21% of the market. Historically, it’s closer to 40%. Even more worrying? The median age of a first-time buyer is now 40 years old.
That’s not a flex. That’s a warning sign.
Mortgage Rates: Lower, But Don’t Dream Too Big
Mortgage rates have come down from their highs. The average 30-year fixed is slightly above 6%, down from around 7% earlier and way off the near-8% levels from two years ago.
Yes, rates are drifting lower. But don’t expect a miracle. Those sweet 3% loans from 2022? Gone. Probably not coming back anytime soon.
Experts from Realtor.com, NAR, Fannie Mae, and Redfin are all saying the same thing: mortgage rates in 2026 will likely stay around 6%. Basically, stuck in a boring, frustrating range.
“Just Build More Homes” Isn’t That Simple
On paper, the solution looks easy. Build more houses.
In reality? Not so simple.
Construction costs are way up. Materials cost more. Labour costs more. Tariffs don’t help. Builders are squeezed from all sides. Even when they cut prices, homes still end up too expensive for most buyers.
And when profits shrink, builders slow down. That’s Economics 101.
So no, builders are not swimming in cash. They’re treading water.
My Take: This Is a Wage Problem, Not Just Housing
Here’s my honest view. The housing market isn’t broken in isolation. Wages are the real issue.
When inflation runs hot and wages crawl, people lose buying power. Period. You can tweak rates. You can print money. But if incomes don’t rise meaningfully, affordability stays dead.
And let’s not pretend inflation numbers always tell the full story. When data is missing, estimates get… creative. Setting housing inflation to zero because data is unavailable? That’s not reassuring. That’s concerning.
So, where does this leave us?
I don’t see a housing crash in 2026. What I do see is the same affordability crisis dragging on. Prices stay high. Rates ease slowly. Wages lag. First-time buyers struggle.
It’s not dramatic. It’s not sudden. It’s just… exhausting.
If you’re already in the market, you’ll probably keep building equity. If you’re trying to get in, it’s going to feel like playing musical chairs with fewer seats every year.
That’s the situation. Not pretty, but real.
What do you think? Agree? Disagree? Somewhere in between?
Drop your thoughts below. And yeah, stay sane out there.
